Analysis of the relationship between the development of the activity of the Iraqi Stock Exchange and the economic development in Iraq for the period (2005-2020) using the (NARDL) model

Abstract

The research aims to measure and analyze the relationship between economic development in Iraq and the development of the Iraqi stock market for the period (2005-2020) using the NARDL model, as well as knowing the extent of the impact of a shock on economic development in the Iraqi stock market. The research concluded that there is a direct, non-linear, long-term relationship between economic development and the development of the Iraqi stock market, in addition to the fact that an increase in economic development by (1%) will lead to an increase in the development of the Iraqi stock market by (4.474%), while a decrease Economic development by (1%) will lead to a decrease in the development of the Iraqi stock market by (3.929%). Also, the occurrence of a shock in economic development (high rates of economic development) will lead to an increase in the development of the Iraqi stock market, which reaches its peak after about one season (three months) from the occurrence of the shock and then begins to decline to reach the peak after about two quarters of the shock occurrence (half a year) , then it increases and reaches its peak in the third quarter of the shock to remain at this level (an increase in the development of the stock market by about 0.5%) and it remains at this level without returning to the state of equilibrium even after twenty chapters (five years) from the occurrence of the shock.